Finance Morning | September 29, 2026 — US Treasury Yield Hits ~19-Year High; GAC to Buy 50% of FAW Toyota

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US 10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 5%, Hitting ~19-Year High; Bonds' Appeal at ~25-Year Peak

Source: National Business Daily

On September 28, US Treasuries came under a fresh wave of selling, with the 10-year yield rising to its highest level since 2007 and the 30-year yield touching its highest since 2004. Behind the rise in long-term yields were higher oil prices, inflation worries and expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep raising rates. All three major US stock indexes fell that day: the S&P 500 dropped 0.77%, its biggest one-day decline since August 20, while the Nasdaq fell 0.92% and the Dow 0.67%.

On September 29 the bond selloff intensified, with the 10-year Treasury yield briefly topping 5.27%, a roughly 19-year high, and the 2-year yield approaching 5%. The 10-year yield has now risen above the S&P 500's earnings yield — the ratio of the index's total earnings to its total market value — lifting bonds' appeal versus stocks to the highest in about 25 years.

Historical data show that once the yield rises above roughly 4.8%, it enters a range that clearly weighs on equity returns. But Bank of America notes that stock P/E valuations face real pressure only when the 10-year yield approaches 7%. Lance Roberts, chief investment strategist and economist at RIA Advisors, summed up the shift as a move from "TINA" (There Is No Alternative) to "TIGA" (There Is A Good Alternative).

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Mortgage Interest Subsidy for Homebuyers Starts October 1; Subsidy Lasts Up to 5 Years

Source: 21st Century Business Herald

On September 29, China's Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued a notice implementing a mortgage interest subsidy policy for homebuyers from October 1, 2026. The policy will run for a trial period of one year. It marks the first time the central government has subsidized commercial personal housing loans.

The notice specifies that households meeting all of the following conditions qualify: first, the home is a first residence bought with a newly issued commercial personal housing loan, excluding the replacement of existing loans; second, the home's floor area does not exceed 120 square meters; and third, the home's price does not exceed 1.5 million yuan.

Under the notice, the loan amount eligible for the subsidy can be as high as 1 million yuan, with the finance authorities providing a subsidy of 1 percentage point on an annualized basis for a maximum of five years.

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GAC Group to Buy 50% of FAW Toyota via Share Issue; FAW to Become GAC's Second-Largest Shareholder

Source: Sina Finance

On the evening of September 28, GAC Group disclosed a major asset restructuring plan to buy, through a share issue, the 50% stake in FAW Toyota Motor Co. held by China FAW Corporation, and to raise matching funds by issuing shares to no more than 35 qualified specific investors. The company's shares will resume trading at the market open on September 29.

Under the plan, the issue price for the share-swap purchase is set at 5.75 yuan per share, no less than 80% of the average trading price over the 120 trading days before the pricing benchmark date. GAC Group's A-shares closed at 5.09 yuan on their last trading day before suspension (September 11), so the issue price carries a premium of about 13%. As of the signing date, the audit and valuation of the target assets were not yet complete and the deal price had not been finalized.

FAW Toyota is a joint venture between FAW and Toyota, forming a long-standing "north-south twin JV" structure with GAC Toyota. It runs three vehicle plants in Tianjin, Changchun and Chengdu plus supporting engine factories. On unaudited figures, FAW Toyota posted revenue of 106.57 billion yuan, 108.624 billion yuan and 40.725 billion yuan in 2024, 2025 and the first half of 2026, with net profits of 4.717 billion, 4.234 billion and 1.009 billion yuan. After the deal, GAC Group will hold 50% of FAW Toyota, Toyota will keep the other 50%, and FAW will hold no equity in FAW Toyota and instead become GAC Group's second-largest shareholder. GAC said the deal will not change its actual controller — still Guangzhou's state-owned assets — and does not constitute a backdoor listing.

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New Battery Industry 15th Five-Year Plan Released; Battery Shares Surge

Source: 21st Century Business Herald

Battery shares led the A-share market on the morning of September 29; at the time of writing, the battery sector index had risen more than 4%, with Wuhan Landian, Shangshui Intelligent, Weike Technology, Guoxuan High-Tech, Zizhu High-Tech and Shidai Wanheng among the stocks hitting the daily limit.

The move followed the release on September 28 of the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the New Battery Industry" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments, which calls for major progress in new-system battery R&D and the initial large-scale application of all-solid-state batteries by 2030. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's new battery industry topped 1 trillion yuan in total output, mass-produced cells exceeded 300 Wh/kg in energy density, and battery cycle life reached up to more than 12,000 cycles.

The plan sets out 19 key tasks and 5 special columns across five areas, targeting a cycle life of 15,000 cycles for long-life lithium batteries and PPB-level product defect rates for leading firms by 2030. CITIC Securities expects global solid-state battery shipments to exceed 700GWh by 2030, including more than 200GWh of all-solid-state batteries; China has already mass-produced semi-solid-state batteries and aims for vehicle installation and small-batch production in 2026-2027 and commercialization in 2030.

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Manus Releases 2.0, Just 27 Days After Regaining Independence

Source: Sina Finance

On September 28 local time, Manus released Manus 2.0, just 27 days after the company regained independent operations on September 1 — its first major version update since emerging from the Meta acquisition saga. The release adds the in-house agent framework Cascade, Manus Studio, Cloud Computer and Automations, plus a personal agent product called Cue.

The core of the update is Cascade. Manus says it is the latest iteration of its in-house agent framework. In one test configuration, Cascade cut token consumption by 23.2%, shortened task completion time by 28.2% and reduced operating costs by 32% versus the previous system. Manus stressed that these figures come from a single test configuration, not a comprehensive average.

On December 29, 2025, Meta announced it would acquire Manus, with market reports putting the deal at $2bn-$3bn. In April this year, China's foreign investment security review office (under the National Development and Reform Commission) decided to prohibit the foreign acquisition of the Manus project and required the parties to unwind it. The two sides then began separating their businesses and data, and Manus resumed independent operations on September 1.

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Hong Kong SFC Says Mainland Informed of Plans to Extend Stock Trading Hours

Source: Sina Finance

Wilfred Leung, an executive director of Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission, said Hong Kong has informally notified the mainland about a possible extension of stock market trading hours. The mainland is aware of the discussions and largely respects Hong Kong's market autonomy, he said, adding that it has not raised major objections. Hong Kong is studying options that both benefit market development and lessen potential impact on the mainland.

Leung noted that southbound trading under Stock Connect accounts for more than 20% of Hong Kong's overall market turnover, saying "if the mainland is not ready, it would be hard for us to push ahead." HKEX has consulted brokers on different options and their pros and cons but has not yet settled on a specific plan.

Leung added that scrapping the lunchtime break has drawn the most attention, so a forthcoming consultation paper will focus on the direction most acceptable to the local industry. On shortening the settlement cycle to T+1, HKEX will "give a timetable" when it publishes its consultation conclusions later this year. The paper will also detail challenges and arrangements around ETF creation and redemption and securities lending.

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Tokyo Stocks Fall Broadly; Nikkei Ends Down 0.60%

Source: Kyodo News

Tokyo's Nikkei stock index extended its decline on September 29 and fell almost across the board, closing at 65,481.27, down 396.35 points, or 0.60%, from the previous session, Kyodo News reported. Because the interim dividend rights for companies with March fiscal year-ends were set the previous day, selling emerged in a wide range of shares.

A drop in US semiconductor stocks overnight and higher US crude oil futures also pressured Tokyo shares. In the overnight US session, British chip designer Arm fell sharply, and its parent SoftBank Group was also sold off in Tokyo, dragging on the broader market.

With the outlook for the Middle East unclear, crude prices spiked, and worries that higher costs will hurt corporate earnings prompted heavy selling, with decliners accounting for 85% of the Prime market. The Nikkei was down more than 1,100 points at one stage before bargain-hunting near the close trimmed the loss.

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Samsung, SK Hynix Q3 Results Ahead; AI Memory Demand Faces Profit Test

Source: Economic Observer

As global AI infrastructure build-out continues, the memory chip industry is seeing a new round of demand growth. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, two of the world's largest memory makers, are about to report third-quarter results. The market widely expects their profits to improve further, but with chip prices rising and companies expanding investment, the sustainability of demand, the competitive landscape and supply-demand changes are key focal points.

On September 28, Samsung Electronics shares fell 5.43% to 270,000 won, while SK Hynix fell 5.05% to 1.768 million won. Samsung's third-quarter revenue is estimated at 199.1 trillion won with operating profit of 105.6 trillion won; SK Hynix's revenue and operating profit are projected at 94.1 trillion won and 74.1 trillion won, putting their combined operating profit at nearly 180 trillion won.

Industry players see AI server demand as a key driver of the memory recovery. SK Hynix's second-quarter operating profit reached about 60.5 trillion won, up 557% year on year and a quarterly record. Demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is growing fast and has become an important source of profit improvement, while fourth-generation HBM (HBM4) will be a key focus in the two companies' third-quarter reports.

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Taiwan's September Consumer Confidence Index Rises to 68.77

Source: The Epoch Times

Taiwan's Research Center for Taiwan Economic Development at National Central University said on September 29 that the September consumer confidence index (CCI) came in at 68.77, up 3.76 points from August, with all six sub-indices rising. Center director Wu Ta-jen said Taiwan's economy has been lifted recently by AI demand, with export strength spilling over into traditional industries, improving the public's view of the economy and investment climate.

The sub-index for the "timing to invest in stocks" rose the most, up 7.7 points to 35.42; the domestic economic outlook gained 5.82 points to 87.02; household finances rose 4.52 points to 82.64; and job opportunities added 3.38 points to 76.7. The "timing to buy real estate" index rose 8.81 points to 98.84, a one-and-a-half-year high.

Wu cautioned that US inflation and Federal Reserve policy remain important external variables for Taiwan's economy. He noted that the US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.3% year on year in July, above the 2.4% core CPI, indicating that price pressures excluding energy and food remain high.

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Australia's Central Bank Raises Rates for Fourth Time This Year, to 4.6%

Source: Economic Observer

Australia's central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia, raised rates by 25 basis points on September 29 — its fourth hike this year after increases of 25 basis points each in February, March and May. The benchmark rate now stands at 4.6%, the highest since November 2011, when the RBA cut it from 4.75% to 4.5%.

The RBA said it will continue to take the necessary steps to bring inflation back to target and will raise rates further if needed. Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed the headline consumer price index rose 3.5% year on year in July 2026, down from 3.8% a month earlier, while the trimmed mean inflation rate held at 3.6%. The RBA's target range for inflation is 2%-3%.

In its September monetary policy statement, the RBA said that as the Middle East conflict widens, global energy prices are well above the levels projected in August, while AI-related demand is driving a rapid rise in global technology product prices, with Australia's domestic capacity still under pressure. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Australians are "paying a high price" for the protracted conflict in the Middle East.

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