Finance Evening: US Stocks Slip on Hot CPI, Nvidia Probe Widens, Bank of Canada Keeps Door Open to Hikes

📊 North American Markets Today

(A higher USD/CAD reading means a weaker Canadian dollar.)

1. US stocks slip as hot CPI lifts December rate-hike odds

Source: Yahoo Finance

US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October from a month earlier, above the 0.3% economists expected but cooler than September's 0.6% gain. The October report did not include annual inflation figures because last year's government shutdown limited the data available.

After the release, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%, the S&P 500 dropped about 0.4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 0.7%, following a sharp rally in US stocks a day earlier.

Traders now overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points in December, with a subset of Fed watchers betting on a 50 basis point move; recent comments from Fed Governor Chris Waller reinforced those bets. Tech stocks bore the brunt: Nvidia fell more than 5% on Tuesday after a 4% drop the previous session. Midday, the S&P 500 was down nearly 1%, shedding about $500 billion in market value by Yahoo Finance's calculations, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell more than 1% and the equal-weighted S&P 500 was down only about 0.2%. CoreWeave, Quantum and Rigetti reported after the bell.

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2. Nvidia hires major New York law firm to probe Huang affair

Source: BBC

Nvidia said on Tuesday it had hired New York law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, and that its attorney Joon Kim would lead "a thorough and independent investigation" into chief executive Jensen Huang's affair. Huang has admitted to a romantic relationship outside his marriage; the woman, Alice Huang, is alleged to be a spy for Beijing. The FBI is also conducting its own probe.

Some $500 billion has been wiped off Nvidia's market value since Friday, and the share price has fallen almost to a yearly low. Nvidia is the world's second most valuable company after Apple. Alice Huang was an executive at Singaporean company Megaspeed, a customer of Nvidia that had been suspected of helping divert Nvidia chips to China — a concern Nvidia said was investigated and debunked.

According to the New York Times, Secretary of State Marco Rubio sent a memo to top officials in Washington this spring warning that Huang was in a close relationship with a Chinese spy. Beijing has rejected the allegations, saying they were "intended to smear and malign China." President Donald Trump said Monday that he had spoken to Huang, who told him "I had no idea she was a spy," and that he believed him. Congressional leaders of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs have asked Huang to appear next week for a closed-door briefing; he has not said whether he will attend.

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3. Anthropic's seven co-founders to each cash out nearly $250M in IPO

Source: TechCrunch

As Anthropic barrels toward an IPO that could value it at $1.4 trillion, its updated S-1 filing shows each of its seven co-founders plans to sell 3,378,378 shares. The company has floated a price range of $70 to $78 a share; at the $74 midrange, each founder would take in just shy of $250 million.

At the low end of $70, each would pocket just over $236 million; at $78, just under $264 million. Demand signals are already visible: board member Reed Hastings has indicated he wants to buy $300 million worth of shares through his donor-advised fund, and board member Christopher Liddell wants to buy $3 million worth.

The seven co-founders are CEO Dario Amodei, president and chair Daniela Amodei, chief compute officer Tom Brown, head of public benefit Jack Clark, chief science officer Jared Kaplan, chief architect Sam McCandlish and interpretability research lead Christopher Olah. After the sale, each will own about 3.2% of Class A shares, or roughly 22% collectively; each also receives one Class F share carrying supervoting rights, giving the founders 51.1% of votes.

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4. Carney calls Stellantis Brampton closure a 'betrayal'

Source: CBC

Prime Minister Mark Carney said Tuesday in Montreal that Stellantis shuttering its Brampton, Ont., assembly plant is "unacceptable" and "a betrayal of the workers as it is a betrayal of the obligations to Canada and by extension to all Canadians." Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre blames the Liberal government for failing to prevent the closure and called on Carney to fire Industry Minister Melanie Joly.

Joly said her office has engaged with Stellantis and Unifor, the union representing workers at the plant, for more than a year without a solution, and that Ottawa will "use the full force of the law" to protect jobs. Under a deal announced in 2022, Ottawa pledged up to $529 million for the Brampton and Windsor plants; the contract barred Stellantis from closing Brampton before 2035 unless circumstances beyond its "reasonable control" made the facility "commercially unviable."

More than 2,000 workers were laid off when the plant halted operations in 2023 for retooling. Stellantis paused that plan in early 2025 and said in October of that year that the Jeep Compass would be built in Belvidere, Illinois instead. On Monday the automaker announced it was selling the plant to Canadian armoured vehicle maker Roshel Inc.; Roshel CEO Roman Shimonov said the company plans a "new centre of excellence for advanced manufacturing" but did not commit to rehiring Stellantis workers. CBC reported that the federal government gave Stellantis's Canadian arm $222 million between 2023 and 2025, and the company said Tuesday it would voluntarily pay the subsidies back. Ontario, which had pledged up to $513 million, provided no funding for the Brampton retooling because conditions on jobs and milestones were not met, though Windsor received $55 million. Joly will host a meeting of stakeholders in Toronto on Thursday.

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5. Canadian exports to China hit records ahead of Carney-Xi meeting

Source: CP24

As Prime Minister Mark Carney prepares to visit China and hold a bilateral meeting with President Xi Jinping next week, third-quarter figures compiled by the China Institute at the University of Alberta show Canadian exports to China reaching record levels, particularly in Western Canada, led by food and energy shipments. "Our exports are going to hit record highs this year, and the numbers are accelerating," said institute director Philippe Rheault.

Total two-way trade reached $36.78 billion in the third quarter, the highest quarterly level on record, driven largely by energy. Crude oil exports to China jumped 159%, averaging 327,000 barrels per day, much of it enabled by added capacity from the Trans Mountain pipeline. On agriculture, canola meal exports rose to $360.3 million from $12.9 million a year earlier, pea exports increased to $147.6 million from $9.2 million, and beef exports reached $181.4 million after being virtually non-existent a year earlier.

Alberta and Saskatchewan accounted for nearly 78% of the overall increase, and national domestic exports to China rose about $4.32 billion year over year. Experts also flagged risk: nearly 70% of Canada's canola seed exports went to China in 2024, giving Beijing leverage in political disputes. Carney said Tuesday that the security risks of the partnership are "much, much, much, much less" than those with the United States, and that he intends to raise non-interference directly with Xi. Canada still exports about ten times as much to the United States as to China.

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6. Moody's cuts Canada's 2027 housing outlook as resales weaken

Source: Mortgage Professional America

Canadian home prices ended the third quarter of 2026 down 1.1% from a year earlier, according to the RPS House Price Index, as Moody's Analytics lowered its 2027 outlook while still expecting a modest recovery to build gradually. National resales fell 2.3% from August to September, breaking a tentative spring improvement, with transactions down 5.3% in Toronto and 6.2% in Vancouver; Victoria posted a steeper decline.

Ontario and British Columbia continued to absorb the sharpest corrections, while Quebec City posted annual price gains of roughly 10%, ahead of Montreal and Regina. A May survey of more than 1,000 professionals across Canada by Ownright, an Ontario-based real estate law service, found 40% of respondents cited economic anxiety, including recession fears, as the primary driver of hesitation, ahead of employment concerns (17%) and interest rates (15%). "Uncertainty itself has become a market force," co-founder Joel Fox said.

Supply offers little near-term relief: housing starts fell roughly 9% year over year in the third quarter. CMHC's Fall 2026 report estimated Canada needs between 417,000 and 469,000 starts annually through 2036 to restore pre-pandemic affordability, against a current pace of about 231,000 units. The Canadian Real Estate Association, meanwhile, cut its 2026 sales forecast for a third consecutive quarter, projecting 444,530 transactions.

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7. Fed's Waller sees December hike likely, flags possible half-point move

Source: CNBC

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Tuesday in London that the central bank needs to follow through on expectations for additional rate hikes or risk its credibility, even suggesting a larger-than-usual half-percentage-point increase could be warranted in December. He said he is "leaning toward" a December hike even if October inflation data comes in softer than expected, and would support "more robust action" if readings come in higher.

“Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take,” Waller said. October CPI, reported Tuesday, showed a headline increase of 0.4% and core inflation of 0.3%, both 0.1 percentage point above the Dow Jones consensus. Traders afterwards fully priced in a quarter-point December hike and 12.5% odds of a half-point move.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said later in the day she envisions two more quarter-point hikes before the central bank can pause to assess the impact. The Fed approved a quarter-point hike in September and held in October, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting. Waller described the economy as growing "at a healthy pace," with a labor market that "has also been solid" in the current low-hire, low-fire climate.

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8. Bank of Canada minutes: more hikes may be needed, but carefully

Source: The Globe and Mail

The Bank of Canada's governing council thinks it might need to raise interest rates further but is proceeding carefully, according to a summary of deliberations released Tuesday. The bank raised its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.5% last month — its first hike since 2023 — to reduce the risk that stubbornly high oil prices become persistent inflation.

Members underlined that their outlook was still subject to "considerable uncertainty" about the war in the Middle East, Canada-U.S. trade relations, global financial conditions, the speed and extent of pass-through, and how businesses and households would react. They agreed to keep those sources of uncertainty in mind and to take decisions one meeting at a time.

With the war in its eighth month and no resolution on the horizon, members exchanged views on whether a higher policy rate was needed to mitigate the risk that higher energy costs spread to other goods and services. Monetary policy cannot lower global energy prices, the summary said, but it can prevent them from leading to generalized inflation. The bank has raised its outlook for annual inflation to 3.5% at the end of this year, remaining above 3% for much of 2027. The next rate decision is scheduled for Dec. 9.

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9. Canadian dollar hits near four-week low as US CPI boosts greenback

Source: The Globe and Mail

The Canadian dollar weakened to a near four-week low against its US counterpart on Tuesday, as the greenback posted broad-based gains and investors weighed minutes from the Bank of Canada's most recent policy decision. The loonie was trading 0.5% lower at 1.4185 per US dollar, or 70.50 US cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since Oct. 15 at 1.4210.

"The Bank had clearly tilted hawkish in the run-up to its October rate hike," said Shelly Kaushik, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "The data and developments since then, particularly on energy prices, suggest there's no hurry to follow up with another move in December." Swap market data showed investors have fully discounted a Fed hike in December, while chances of a BoC move next month are seen at less than 50%.

Canadian government bond yields moved higher across a flatter curve, tracking US Treasuries. The 2-year was up 9.4 basis points at 3.251%, falling a further 10.1 basis points below the equivalent US rate to a gap of about 149 basis points, its widest since Oct. 21.

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10. US credit card debt climbs to a record $1.29 trillion

Source: CNBC

Credit card balances climbed by $22 billion in the third quarter to a record $1.29 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest household debt report, released Tuesday. Balances are up 4.2% from a year earlier. Total household debt, including mortgages, auto loans and student loans, expanded by $334 billion to a record $19.1 trillion.

"Overall debt has been growing. This does reflect financial hardship out there," New York Fed researchers said on a press call Tuesday. A separate TransUnion report found the average credit card balance per consumer now stands at $6,678, up 2.4% year over year, while the number of people with credit cards rose 2% to 178 million from 174.8 million.

The average interest rate on a new credit card offer is about 24%, according to LendingTree data. "Credit cards continue to be one of the most expensive ways to borrow," said Charlie Wise, TransUnion's senior vice president of global research and consulting. The New York Fed noted that issuers loosened lending standards during the pandemic, delinquency rates rose afterwards, and high inflation and rising borrowing costs have squeezed consumers, with inflation outpacing wage growth for low-income brackets.

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