Finance Morning | Sep 4: China's New Growth Drivers Index Up 12.5%; Markets Await US Jobs Report

📊 Asian Markets Today

1. China's new growth drivers index up 12.5%

Source: China Daily

China's National Bureau of Statistics released new figures showing the economy's new growth drivers index reached 153.0 in 2025, up 12.5% from a year earlier. The index tracks new industries, new business forms and new business models to gauge the momentum of new growth drivers — the higher the reading, the stronger the momentum.

By component, the transformation and upgrading index stood at 156.8, up 22.7%, contributing 34.1% of the total increase; the innovation-driven index at 156.3, up 12.9%, contributing 31.4%; the internet economy index at 157.8, up 10.8%, contributing 27.2%; and the economic vitality index at 137.2, up 4.8%, contributing 7.3%.

Lu Haiqi, head of the NBS institute for statistics science, said the transformation and upgrading index led the four components, reflecting China's push for technology-driven industrial innovation, digital transformation of manufacturing and its AI+ initiative, with emerging industries growing faster.

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2. Gold miners' profits surge while jewelry stores close in droves

Source: Qilu Evening News

Global gold swung sharply in the first half of 2026. London gold touched a record $5,405 an ounce early in the year, then dropped to $4,002 in June before rebounding to around $4,700 in late August, a monthly gain of more than 10%.

Earnings show a sharp split between upstream miners and downstream retailers. Zhaojin Gold's net profit surged 407.44% to 227 million yuan; Western Gold's net profit rose 315% to 547 million yuan; and Zhongjin Gold's net profit rose 61.67% to 4.357 billion yuan. Average international gold prices rose 53% year-on-year, feeding directly into miners' excess profits.

Retailers struggled. China Gold's first-half revenue fell nearly 20% to 24.9 billion yuan; Laofengxiang's net profit dropped 41% to 716 million yuan; Chow Tai Seng's fell 24.24% to 450 million yuan. Five major chains — Chow Tai Seng, Laofengxiang, Yuyuan, Chow Tai Fook and China Gold — together closed a net total of more than 1,900 stores in the first half.

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3. China's credit cards shrink by nearly 20 million in H1

Source: Sina Finance

Data released by the central bank show that as of the end of the second quarter, credit cards and combined debit-credit cards totaled 677 million, down 10 million from the first quarter and nearly 20 million from the start of the year.

Mid-year reports from listed banks show divergence. ICBC's credit cards fell to 143 million at end-June from 145 million at end-2025, a drop of about 2 million; Ping An Bank's card accounts fell to 42.85 million. Card counts at Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank and China Merchants Bank rose slightly in the first half.

Dong Ximiao, deputy director of the Shanghai Finance and Development Laboratory, said the shift signals the industry is leaving its high-growth phase and entering a stock-focused era of quality improvement. Dormant cards once accounted for as much as 30% at some banks, wasting resources and posing risks.

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4. Tencent Music offers $1 billion senior notes

Source: CNFOL

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (01698.HK) announced the public offering of $1 billion in senior unsecured notes, as disclosed on Sept 3 (US Eastern time).

The offering comprises $500 million of notes due 2031 with a 5.050% coupon, and $500 million of notes due 2036 with a 5.650% coupon. The notes are registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and are expected to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with completion expected on or around Sept 10 (US Eastern time).

Net proceeds, after underwriting discounts, commissions and estimated expenses, are expected to be about $991.9 million, to be used for general corporate purposes including refinancing offshore debt and share buybacks.

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5. Japan's real household spending falls for 8th straight month

Source: Xinhua Finance

Japan's household spending remained weak in July, with real household consumption falling for an eighth consecutive month, according to survey data released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on Sept 4.

Hit by rising prices, consumers are cutting back. Average monthly spending by households of two or more people fell 3.6% year-on-year, with spending down in eight of ten spending categories.

Food spending fell 1.3%, its second straight monthly decline; spending on utilities fell 9.2%, a fifth straight decline; and transport and communications spending fell 8.5% amid weak car sales.

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6. Goldman flags Korea liquidity risk as retail buying dries up

Source: Sina Finance

On Sept 3, Goldman Sachs analyst Chris Cha issued a warning about liquidity risks in the Korean stock market, pointing to retail outflows and net selling by foreign and institutional investors, with the market relying on corporate buybacks for stability.

Retail net buying in August plunged 90% from June, falling from 54.5 trillion won to 5.4 trillion won, largely exhausting the retail momentum that drove the KOSPI's first-half rebound.

Goldman estimates the buyback quotas of Samsung and SK Hynix will be used up between late September and mid-October, ahead of their official November deadlines, and advises investors to prepare for a potential liquidity shock in October.

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7. Nvidia to acquire Hugging Face for $12.93 billion

Source: Jiemian News

Nvidia announced on Sept 3 that it has agreed to acquire Hugging Face for $12.93 billion. The two sides will jointly expand the platform's scale and strengthen its infrastructure to give developers and institutions worldwide broader AI application opportunities.

Hugging Face will remain an open platform for the AI ecosystem, letting developers freely choose models, frameworks, cloud services and inference providers — without being required to use Nvidia's computing power when building or deploying models.

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8. Goldman sees mid-to-high single-digit stock returns ahead

Source: Sina Finance

Goldman Sachs chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer published a new forecast, expecting stock-market returns in the mid-to-high single digits over the next 12 months, below the levels of the past 12 months across regions.

Oppenheimer said the return is still relatively decent as long as growth continues, but noted the S&P 500 and other global markets have had a long rally and gains are likely to slow. The S&P 500 is up 12% so far this year.

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9. Wall Street braces for tonight's US jobs report

Source: Sina Finance

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the closely watched August non-farm payrolls report at 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the final piece of the puzzle for Fed officials before their Sept 16 meeting.

The market consensus is for non-farm payrolls to rebound to a gain of 55,000 in August from July's decline of 23,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1% and average hourly earnings up 0.3% month-on-month.

Wall Street is deeply divided, with forecasts ranging from a gain of 125,000 to a decline of 25,000 — a spread of 150,000. July's unexpected drop of 23,000, and downward revisions to May and June data, have underscored cooling hiring.

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10. Phone prices climb across the board — who profits?

Source: Xinhua Finance

Huawei, Xiaomi and Honor have quietly raised prices on their official stores, with single-device increases of 200 to 1,000 yuan spanning budget models to flagship phones, breaking the electronics industry's usual pattern of prices only falling.

The direct driver is rising memory chip costs, as exploding AI demand and HBM crowding out wafer capacity tighten supply of DRAM and NAND flash for phones. Counterpoint Research data show BOM costs for sub-$200 phones rose 70% year-on-year in Q2 2026, almost entirely from memory.

He Hao, an electronics analyst at CSC Financial, said it is rare for Chinese phones to raise prices before a model refresh, but it aligns with the industry's long-running push upmarket. TrendForce expects Q3 contract prices for traditional DRAM to rise another 13% to 18% quarter-on-quarter.

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