Finance Morning | October 26, 2026 — Shanghai Edges Up 0.19% as Banks and Oil Lead, Asia Mostly Lower

📊 Asia Market Close

1. Shanghai Edges Up 0.19% as Banks and Oil Stocks Rally

Source: Sina Finance

China's three main stock indices diverged on October 26, with the Shanghai Composite recovering in the afternoon to close in positive territory at 3,697.52 points, up 0.19%. The Shenzhen Component ended at 11,534.38 points and the ChiNext Index at 2,638.23 points. Combined turnover across the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing markets was about 1.62 trillion yuan, and more than 2,200 stocks rose.

Oil and petrochemicals gained 2.41%, the best performer among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries. PetroChina rose 4.94% to 13.38 yuan, CNOOC gained 4.27% to 35.16 yuan and Sinopec added 3.54% to 5.56 yuan. Oilfield services were also active, with China Oilfield Services up 7.23% to 13.49 yuan and Offshore Oil Engineering up 5.95% to 6.59 yuan. On October 23, December WTI crude settled at $103.27 a barrel, up 3.82%, while December Brent settled at $116.72, up 3.14%.

Banks rose 1.76%, second among Shenwan industries. ICBC gained 3.13%, Bank of Nanjing 2.98% and China Construction Bank 2.74%, while Bank of Communications, Bank of Shanghai, Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Bank of Jiangsu all rose more than 2%. Interim dividends from listed banks are being paid out in a concentrated period — as of October 26, 21 A-share listed banks had disclosed or implemented 2026 interim dividend plans totalling more than 260 billion yuan, including about 220.99 billion yuan from the large state-owned banks.

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2. High-End Graphics Cards Jump Over 1,000 Yuan in a Week in Huaqiangbei

Source: Sina Finance

As AI data centres keep demanding computing power, high-end consumer graphics cards have seen frantic price increases in the retail market. On October 26, reporters from Yicai visited Huaqiangbei in Shenzhen and found that prices of several Nvidia high-end consumer cards had moved sharply higher. According to multiple merchants, the RTX 5060 now sells for about 4,000 yuan, the RTX 5070 for about 8,000 yuan with some above 9,000 yuan, the RTX 5090D for about 30,000 yuan, and the RTX 5090 has climbed above 50,000 yuan.

One merchant said the RTX 5060 sold for about 3,000 yuan two weeks ago and stood at 4,000 yuan in recent days, versus just over 2,000 yuan more than two months ago. The RTX 5070 had three price increases last week, rising nearly 1,000 yuan in a week, while the RTX 5080 rose 6,000 to 7,000 yuan. The RTX 5090 has nearly doubled from a few months ago and gained almost 10,000 yuan in just over a week. Merchants said quotes change daily and are only valid at the moment — one customer who asked again three days later was quoted 800 yuan more, and another 1,000 yuan more again.

Price-comparison data showed an Asus RTX 5060 8G card that sold for 2,749 yuan in late July is now 2,050 yuan more expensive, a 75% increase; a Colorful RTX 5070 12G card priced around 6,599 yuan before mid-September has risen 4,200 yuan since late September, up more than 60%; and a Galaxy RTX 5080 16G card that sold for 10,399 yuan in mid-July has risen 12,000 yuan, or 115%. Merchants attribute the surge to AI computing demand diverting components toward data-centre products, tightening chip supply and reducing shipments. On talk that Nvidia had halted RTX 5090 production, Jeff Fisher, senior vice president of Nvidia's personal computing business, said production has not stopped but acknowledged limits on supply chains and capacity.

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3. Universities to Pay Salaries in Digital Yuan from November

Source: Sina Finance

Several universities have issued notices that salaries for staff on the permanent payroll will be paid through digital yuan wallets. Yangzhou University's finance office said on October 20 that, following a pre-notice from the provincial finance department, salaries for staff including personnel-agency employees will be paid via digital yuan wallets from November 2026, and staff must open or upgrade their wallets by October 23.

Nantong University's finance office issued a notice on opening digital yuan wallets and paying November salaries in digital yuan, saying all permanent and personnel-agency staff will be paid through digital yuan wallets from November 2026 and must complete wallet opening and upgrades by October 30, with salaries and performance pay paid to two separate cards. Jiangsu Normal University's finance office issued a notice on collecting digital yuan wallet information, saying it will steadily advance digital yuan salary payments in line with national pilot work.

The digital yuan is a digital form of legal tender issued by the People's Bank of China, operated with designated institutions on a broad-account basis, supporting loose coupling with bank accounts and equivalent to physical renminbi. Users can open wallets through the "Digital RMB" app and pay by QR code, "tap to pay", or hardware wallets such as visual cards and SIM cards.

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4. Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed; Hang Seng Up 0.51%

Source: JRJ

Asia-Pacific markets closed mixed on October 26, with three of 11 major indices higher and eight lower, reflecting a weak overall mood. The top gainers were the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (+0.59%), the Hang Seng Index (+0.51%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.19%).

The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,211.81 points, up 118.44 points. The weakest performers were the ChiNext Index (-1.71%), South Korea's KOSPI (-1.46%) and Indonesia's Jakarta Composite (-1.22%), suggesting investors remain cautious on richly valued growth sectors.

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5. Nikkei Falls 0.80% as AI Concerns Persist

Source: Kyodo News

Tokyo stocks opened a new week on October 26 with the Nikkei down 503.51 points, or 0.80%, at 62,189.65. The broader TOPIX gained 7.17 points, or 0.18%, to 3,972.98. Trading volume was 2.12782 billion shares.

Concerns about the growth potential of artificial intelligence businesses continued to weigh on the market, with high-tech shares leading declines. As Japanese and US technology companies prepare to report earnings, many investors chose to take profits. Market participants argue that heavy AI investment is increasing pressure on US tech giants and that AI revenue growth will fall short of expectations, a major negative for equities.

Still, after the Nikkei fell more than 1,900 points over October 22 and 23, oversold shares rebounded and the index briefly turned positive.

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6. Goldman Cuts Korea Target by 25% but Still Sees 60% Upside

Source: Cailian Press

As worries about the AI sector intensify, Goldman Sachs strategists cut their target for the KOSPI by 25% in a new report. Analysts including Timothy Moe lowered the 12-month target for Korea's benchmark index to 9,000 from 12,000, citing more conservative valuation assumptions after the index plunged more than 35% from its June peak. Goldman also said the selloff has left stocks severely undervalued and that the revised forecast still implies more than 60% upside from current levels.

In recent months the KOSPI, home to chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, has become a bellwether for the global AI trade. Mounting doubts over the sustainability of huge AI infrastructure spending, rising financing costs and a lack of visible returns have hit the index hard, with selling pressure spreading across the Korean market. "The market is pricing in overly pessimistic fundamentals," the strategists wrote in the weekend note.

On valuation, Korea has gone from the hottest major market in the first half to the cheapest in the world, with multiples about half those of Indonesia. The KOSPI's 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen to about 4x, a level not seen in any of 18 markets since 2006, while its market capitalisation topped $1 trillion in early 2026. Goldman estimates current semiconductor valuations imply a 65% drop in 2027 earnings, a scenario it views as too pessimistic, while non-memory stocks that account for about half the index's weight trade at just 7.6x forward earnings. Goldman remains positive on Korean power, industrial and corporate-governance reform names, as well as companies benefiting from domestic reflation and Korean pop culture.

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7. China's Wind and Solar Capacity Tops 2 Billion Kilowatts

Source: Sina Finance (China News Service)

China's installed wind and solar power capacity reached 2.01 billion kilowatts by the end of September 2026, the National Energy Administration said on October 26. In the first nine months of the year, about 170 million kilowatts of new wind and solar capacity was added. Solar capacity reached 1.31 billion kilowatts, up 16.5% year on year, while wind capacity reached 700 million kilowatts, up 20.4%.

Wind and solar generation totalled 1,933.3 billion kilowatt-hours in January-September, 193.7 billion more than a year earlier, with the increment accounting for 64% of the growth in total electricity consumption. On the peak-load day this summer, midday wind and solar output exceeded 40% of total load, helping secure supply during the midday peak.

Renewables have also become a major engine of energy investment. In the first nine months, wind and solar investment accounted for about one third of total energy-sector investment. The NEA said it will anchor to the new round of nationally determined contribution targets, tackle prominent phased issues and keep promoting high-quality new energy development.

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8. Global Stocks Edge Up as Oil Retreats From Six-Month High

Source: Reuters

LONDON, Oct 26 (Reuters) — Global shares edged up on Monday as oil eased from six-month highs ahead of a week of central bank meetings and corporate earnings that will further test confidence in the AI boom. Oil was down around 2% at $114.6 after reports that Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday as part of an effort to de-escalate tensions in coordination with the US. Brent futures jumped 6.2% last week to their highest weekly close since mid-2022 as Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked energy supply concerns. The Houthi group in Yemen said on Monday it had attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West crude pumping stations and Riyadh airport, with no immediate confirmation from Riyadh.

MSCI's All-World index was a touch higher after falling nearly 1% last week, while Europe's STOXX 600 rose 0.4%, led by energy-sensitive stocks such as industrials. Pepperstone head of research Chris Weston said the combination of mega-cap earnings, AI funding concerns, global semiconductor results, five major central bank meetings and potentially market-moving inflation and growth data is "formidable" — and the danger is not simply sharp moves but one catalyst changing the interpretation of the next, creating feedback loops across equities, rates, FX and volatility.

New Zealand's central bank is widely expected to raise rates on Wednesday. Markets assume the Federal Reserve will stand pat but imply an 80% chance of a move in December, with much the same priced in for the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank. A key US core inflation reading should show cost pressures at 3.1% in September, with the economy forecast to grow 3.2%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures gained 0.3%; Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon report this week as one third of S&P 500 companies release results. Yields on 10-year Treasuries were flat at 5%, below this month's peak of 5.36%.

In currencies, the dollar gained 0.3% to about 157.28 yen, while the euro rose 0.1% to $1.121 after France dodged a credit downgrade; French 10-year yields fell 5 basis points to 4.973%. Sterling held at $1.3346 before Britain's new finance minister John Healey delivers his first budget on Wednesday. Futures on the Brazilian real were down more than 10% after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won an unprecedented fourth term.

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9. Gold Slips Back Below $4,000; Fed Expected to Hold

Source: JRJ

China's three main indices opened lower on October 26; by the midday break the Shanghai Composite was down 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component 1.05% and the ChiNext Index 1.65%. Hong Kong indices opened higher, with the Hang Seng up 0.28% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.43%. Japanese and Korean markets opened lower before turning positive.

In Korea, SK Hynix rose as much as 2% while Samsung Electronics fell 1.16%. The country's two memory chipmakers report third-quarter results this week — SK Hynix on Wednesday and Samsung Electronics on Thursday. With AI chip demand rising and memory prices climbing, their combined third-quarter operating profit is expected to reach 184.4 trillion won (about $139.1 billion). Analysts expect SK Hynix's third-quarter revenue at 98.2 trillion won and operating profit at 77 trillion won. If forecasts hold, Samsung would become the first Korean company with quarterly operating profit above 100 trillion won.

Oil fell at the open on October 26, with Brent down 2.03% at $109.43 a barrel and WTI down 2.17% at $101.03. CME's FedWatch shows a 90% probability the Fed holds rates this week and 10% for a 25-basis-point hike; by December, the probabilities are 23.8% for no change, 68.9% for a 25-point hike and 7.3% for 50 points. Spot gold fell back below the $4,000 mark, down 0.12% at $3,991.99 an ounce, while spot silver fell 0.40% to $53.72.

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10. Brazil Real Futures Plunge About 10% After Lula Wins Re-election

Source: Xinhua Finance

After President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won re-election on October 25, overseas markets adjusted sharply, with real futures falling about 10% and Brazil equity funds listed in Tokyo slumping. Money that had bet on an opposition win and a fiscal policy shift began to adjust positions, with concerns over public debt, spending control and interest rates concentrated in asset prices.

According to InfoMoney, at 22:20 Brasilia time on October 25, before onshore trading began on October 26, the November real futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was down 10.02%, implying a rate of about 5.56 reais per dollar. During Asian trading on October 26, equity assets were also sold; Reuters reported that a Brazil equity exchange-traded fund listed in Tokyo fell about 15%.

The move contrasts sharply with the aftermath of the first round. On October 5, the first trading day after Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, took the lead in the first round, the real strengthened about 4.3% to around 5 per dollar. On October 23, the last trading day before the runoff, it gained another 0.98% to close at about 4.9896. Investors had linked an opposition victory to stronger fiscal consolidation, debt control and lower rates.

Concerns centre on fiscal arrangements for the next term. Lula campaigned on extending real increases in the minimum wage, expanding education funding, easing household and small-business debt burdens and continuing public investment. Brazil's public debt already exceeds 82% of GDP, while mandatory spending such as pensions limits room to adjust the budget. Markets are re-pricing the scope for rate cuts; the central bank's next two meetings are November 3-4 and December 8-9, and the pre-runoff curve reflected expectations of a 25-basis-point cut in November, according to Reuters.

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